Tuesday, January 8, 2013


1.         According to UN survey Indian population is going to stabilize in the year 2050 with population around 1.6 billion (1600 million). That is to say that the growth rate would become zero. According to me, this is a far fetching estimation and there is a basis for that. The current decadal growth rate of total population is 21.41 and the growth rate started reducing only in 1981. The average reduction of growth rate is around 2 % per decade till 2001. If the estimation of stability of the population (i.e. there would not be any further rise of population) is to come true the average reduction of growth rate should be well above 4 % for around 4 decades starting from 2001 onwards. In any case it should not fall less than 2 % there after, for another three decades. This is a tall order going by the current population control measures. Even if total population of India would  stabilise, with 0% growth rate by around 2060, with 1.6 billion population, there are other factors that merit consideration:-


(a)       The growth rate of Hindu population is just about 20% where as of Muslim population is around 29 %. The 0% growth rate of each community cannot be achieved at the same time and the Muslim population would lag behind Hindu population in achieving the 0% growth rate. Hindu population would hit the 0 % growth rate quicker because the starting point is lower.


(b)       As the Hindu population growth rate would be approaching 0% - quicker than Muslim population, it may be assumed that total growth rate of 0 % (for our country) could be achieved by an offset (negative growth of Hindu population and still positive but reducing growth rate of Muslim population for some years before it becomes 0%). Therefore internal corrections such as negative growth rate for Hindu population and positive growth rate of Muslim population would keep changing the demographic pattern even if the total population is stabilised. Sachar committee report also discusses this – “ due to high total fertility rates (TFR), lower child mortality rates and a better than average child sex ratio among Muslims which would mean that the Muslim population growth would start to plalteau around 10-15 years after it has for other social and religious communities in the country”. In fact my estimation suggests that it would take around 3 decades!


(c)        The illegal refugee problem from the porous borders of our country, which will require a separate analysis and would be discussed subsequently.


2.         As per Sachar committee report, by 2050 in the area of pre-partition India (i.e. including Pakistan and Bangladesh) the combined population of Muslims and Christians together would be close to the 50 % mark in comparison to the Indian religionists (i.e. Hindus, Sikhs, Jains, and others). Further if the indication of population density of the regions are heeded then, Bangladesh in next fifty yrs would have population density of more than 1500 per sq Km (presently it is 1069 per sq Km) compared to about 600 per sq Km of that of India! The pressure of this population density of Bangladesh is enough for us to sit up and ponder. Add to it the issue of global warming and reports of 20% land of Bangladesh getting inundated by sea waters and there by creating more pressure. This gives a figure of approximately four crores.


3.         This growth of Muslim population in India cannot be seen in isolation. The influx from other neighbouring countries should be considered. Though Sachar committee has tried to play down illegal Bangladeshi immigration, by terming it as inconsequential. An influx of more than 1.8 crores Muslims from Bangladesh by conservative estimates and upto 3 crores cannot be ruled out. This makes around 2 % of the population of India which is not inconsequential at all. Imagine in just 30 years of existence of Bangladesh 1/6th of the size of the population of France coming and settling down in India! These Bangladeshi illegal immigrants are not settling down only in Assam and West Bengal but they are spreading out to states like Maharashtra (Mumbai), MP, Bihar and Rajasthan. Many of us would recollect sudden spurt of Muslim localities around us with mosques blaring out on PA systems every morning. Suddenly we have started coming across Muslim localities where they were not existed in near past. These all Muslim localities are mushrooming because of Bangladeshi Muslims settlers. It would take five minutes or so to read this article, - as per the estimates, in those five minutes ten illegal migrants would have come to India from Bangladesh! This is the rate at which they are coming. Remember our history is alive with many examples of Muslims settling down from West and northwest. The erstwhile ‘Hindu’ states of Baluchistan, NW frontier, Punjab and Sind regions in erstwhile India (now Pakistan) have become majority Muslim states. So much so that we have lost these areas permanently.


The Pattern


4.         As per the Sachar committee report, numerically, the majority of the Muslims in India are living in four states UP, Bihar, West Bengal and Maharashtra, which has atleast 10 million Muslims each. UP has the largest Muslim population in India with 22 % of India’s Muslims living there according to the 2001 census i.e. around 30 million people. The other states with significant Muslim population are Kerala, AP, Assam, Jammu and Kashmir and Karnataka with a population between five to 10 million Muslims each. As per the statistics, of the 593 districts in India, 20 have Muslim majority (yr 2007); of them 9 have predominantly Muslims (over 75 % Muslims) (Lakshadweep and 8 of J&K). The other 11 districts have between 50 to 75 % Muslim population (6 from Assam, 2 from J&K, one each from Bihar, WB and Kerala. 38 districts have Muslim population between 25 to 50 %. In about 182 districts, Muslim population was between 10 to 25 % (enough to influence the out come of the assembly and parliament results!). So of the 593 districts in India, 240 districts with a significant Muslim population of atleast 10 % and above have nearly 82% of India’s Muslim population. Where is this concentration? Border states of Assam, Meghalaya, West Bengal, UP, Jharkhand, Rajasthan and J&K apart from Kerala. The border states of Assam, West Bengal and Jammu & Kashmir are being filled (targeted) by Muslim population. Sooner the states like Rajasthan, UP, Jharkhand would join the league. There emerges a set pattern in the Muslim domination in the areas. The reading of the pattern shows that there is a gradual increase in the density of population in these states. These areas which are getting filled up are such which can make an easy corridor across India joining Pakistan and Bangladesh. Combined with this fact now if we observe the growth of Madrasses. There were around 790 Madarssas at the time of India’s independence in 1947. Now they are more than 50,000. Their distribution is mind boggling - Gujrat, Maharashtra, Assam and Rajasthan 2000 each, MP 6000, UP 2500, Bihar 2800, WB 2400, Jharkhand 1800, Uttaranchal 1000, Kerala 10000 and so on. Most noteworthy is MP which has 6000 of them. These Madarssas it is believed that openly teach the separatists and Jehadis ideas. The so called CD from Taliban which was recovered is again being down played by the pseudo secularists for the reasons best known to them. One should read the writing on the wall which is loud and clear that internal security is being systematically subverted by Pakistan, Taliban and the likes. The occupation of the land by various Muslim groups around every nationally sensitive areas such as airports, defence installations, city centers, and sensitive areas needs thorough study. The Muslim psyche is such that whenever they are in minority they remain quite and dormant. The moment they get out of minority status – trouble starts brewing. Another striking feature of the psyche is when in majority, the normal civilized way of democracy is never adopted and the tendency is to go for dictatorship of military rule. Almost all the Muslim nations are ruled by rulers, or by military dictator or by religious fanatics such as Taliban and their ilks. If one sees the role of Qutubshah, Adilshaha or Mongals, it was a regular family feud which often resulted in killing of the emperor by his son to assume the dictatorship. The pattern is very much evident when one studies the Pakistan’s rule. Bhutto was hanged, Zia was killed in an air accident which is abuzz with a plot. Nawaz Sharif was ousted and driven out of Pakistan so was Benazir Bhutto. Their in Bangladesh we all can see the fate of Sheikh Hasina and Khalida. We all know what happened to Mujibir Rehaman.   


Political Consolidation


5.         This gives an indication of the impending stratagem of the Muslim leaders and their likes. As the Muslim population rises, the Muslim leaders and the Muslim population belonging to various parties could very well exit at an opportune time and form an umbrella organization and seek out for all Muslim vote for such an umbrella Muslim organization. Such an experiment was successfully carried out during recently held Assam elections in which a political consolidation of Muslims in place by forming Assam United Democratic Front. This front though formed few months before assembly elections, it bagged third largest number of votes capturing 10 seats. In fact the party envisions itself as the political rallying point for Bangladeshi Mulsims. Demographic changes caused by illegal emigration have assumed dangerous proportions.  The districts of Dhubri (70.46 per cent), Barpeta (56.07 per cent), Hailakandi (54.79 per cent) and Goalpara (50.18 percent) had already earlier become Muslim majority districts with Nagaon, Morigaon and Karimganj, among others, joining the league now. Where ever there is Muslim majority there is secessionist tendency. The manifestations could be seen in Jammu & Kashmir, Assam and West Bengal in terms of illegal arms caches, bomb explosions and internal disturbances.






6.         If we don’t wake up and read the writing on the wall, by 2090 when Muslims would be around 25 % we would witness a fragmented India. West Bengal, J & K, Uttaranchal, UP, Rajasthan and other parts of India would be endangered.






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