Monday, November 9, 2015


Bihar elections are over. Gathabandhan got two thirds majority. All media and everyone who can utter a word are cursing BJP and laughing at their performance. The general tone of the debate is such that
  • Modi should not have exposed himself and so has become more vulnerable.
  • Modi government’s popularity and performance is on the wane.
  • Congress would be revived by this.
  • Reforms would come to an end.
  • BJP has started losing.
  • Bihar is the beginning of BJP downfall.
Modi should not have exposed himself and so has become more vulnerable – Modi govt lacks numbers in Rajya Sabha and they need it for reforms to be escalated. The obstructionist Congress could be kept at bay democratically by getting more numbers in Rajya Sabha for this more MLAs are required. So Modi is all out to get democratically more numbers in Rajya Sabha by taking every election serious. He wants to deliver on  his poll promises and therefore is taking all out efforts. Risk of becoming vulnerable is there but for long term benefits for the nation this has to be taken and endured which is what he is doing.
Modi government’s popularity and performance is on the wane – Not at all. People have expressed and endorsed his policies and his efforts have been recongnised by them. They voted for mahagathabandhan because in many seats (as much as 120) BJP was fielding their candidate for the first time as for all these years they were with Nitish and so these constituencies were always with JD(U). The task for BJP was first to get introduced to the electorate. Here they voted for tried and tested Nitish who as it is had a clean image. Remember BJP never severed ties. It was Nitish who severed ties like Biju Janata Dal. Refer to FIRST YEAR OF MODI SARKAR - RASHTRAVRAT
Congress would be revived by this – for anyone who is on a death bed there is a moment of energy surge before dying. This surge is due to gathabandhan partners. 
Reforms would come to an end – I stick my neck out and say that now with vengeance BJP government would go for reforms. This is where BJP would gain. Such setbacks would not allow BJP to become complacent in reforms or governance. How much obstructionist the Congress can become this winter session, the reforms are here to come. As it is from 2016 Mar Congress representation from Rajya Sabha would start dwindling due to many members would end their terms.
BJP has started losing – For last Sixty years BJP and erstwhile Jan Sangh were losing and now is the consolidation phase of the party. One or two elections would not make a difference. In Bihar it always played a second fiddle to the principal party and therefore more than 120 seats the BJP representation was never there. Only now BJP has become a principal opposition party and a major player in state politics with 27 percentage vote share. So for a party which played a second fiddle to become principal opposition is a good performance and indicates that its time has not come.
Probably next elections it would become a ruling party and who knows this government may not last its term as RJD has more seats then JD(U)!!
Time would tell whether it was Bihar's loss when Gathabandhan won the election. One gets what they deserve.

No comments: